Distinguish known results from future assumptions
PJM’s published 2026/2027 capacity auction result is a dated wholesale-market fact. A future supplier renewal, a business’s capacity allocation and its next utility invoice are different questions. EIA statistics describe reported periods and forecasts have their own publication dates and assumptions. Label each input as historical, contracted, announced or hypothetical before combining it in a budget.
Build the budget one component at a time
Start with monthly kWh, gas quantity and demand where applicable. Apply the current contract’s covered prices through its actual term. Model the next term separately, using current offers where available. Add utility delivery and other known charges on their appropriate basis. Do not apply a statewide percentage to the entire bill when only one supply component is changing.
Use higher and lower cases without invented odds
Choose transparent price and usage changes to test resilience. Explain why each assumption is useful, but do not present a 55% probability or a guaranteed saving without an independently supported model. Cold weather can affect gas quantities even under a fixed price; a production change can affect demand. Keep those operational cases separate from commodity-price cases so the source of a variance remains clear.
Maintain a dated decision file
Record the offer date, source publication, rate effective period and next review trigger. Refresh assumptions at renewal or after a meaningful tariff or operating change. Do not keep a 2025 action deadline in a current guide. Use the renewal planner to prepare documents and compare offers without claiming to predict a market bottom. A defensible budget is explainable even when future prices differ.
A practical example
Illustrative explanation, not a customer outcome.
If a hypothetical supply subtotal is $1,000 per month, a 10% supply-price scenario changes that subtotal by $100 when usage is held constant. It does not imply a 10% increase in the entire bill or assign a probability to that outcome.
Put the review into practice
| Review step | What to record |
|---|---|
| Check the date | Publication, auction, data and delivery years can differ. |
| Identify the scope | Wholesale market records are not retail offers. |
| Trace the contract | Establish which component can actually change for the account. |
| Use a scenario | Make the assumptions visible rather than assign invented probabilities. |
Questions worth asking
Will Ohio energy prices definitely rise?
No universal claim is justified. The effect depends on the account, period, product and consumption.
What happened to precise savings forecasts?
This guide uses documented inputs and transparent scenarios rather than unsupported customer outcomes or forecast probabilities.
Continue the comparison
Sources and scope
Reviewed October 15, 2026. Follow the source’s own data period, effective dates and current terms. Examples are hypothetical unless expressly identified as a dated published result. A source is context, not a guarantee of eligibility or a product endorsement.